Prospects and impediments for renewable energies in Iran up to 2030 based on comparison with EU countries

Abstract

The main objectives of the current study are estimation of technical electricity potential of solar, wind, geothermal and small hydro in Iran, evaluation of the economic viability under current energy policies, and forecasting the share of these renewable energies in installed electricity capacity and electricity production up to 2030. In addition, Iran's renewable policies are compared with some selected European countries to reveal the pros and cons of the prevailed polices that in turn provides policy implications. Based on the specified available solar trough technology, solar area, average solar hours, average solar direct irradiation, the technical potential of solar electricity was estimated at 14.7 TWe. The potential of wind, small hydro and geothermal were estimated at 4069 MW, 21415 MW, 35723 MW respectively. Under current energy policies, combined solar power plants, SHPP, wind and geothermal are economically viable. These huge RES's potential can be realized conditional to availability of technology, investment capital, human capital and other resources along with a long-term driven renewable energy policy. Due to high growth rate of electricity demand in Iran, the nominal installed capacity (from all sources) has increased by 8.9% per annum during 2001-2007. Assuming a flat growth rate of 5% per annum, the nominal installed electricity capacity will reach to 139298 MW in 2030. In the reference scenario the share of RES in total installed electricity capacity is expected to be about 2% in 2030. It is expected that the cumulative RES installed capacity will reach 2.8 GW in 2030 that requires more than 2800 million US dollar investment during 2010-2030. More than 60% of this investment will be likely allocated to small hydro, 20% to geothermal, and 10% each to solar and wind electricity projects. The research concludes that a comprehensive long- run package of renewable energy policies that at least includes removal of fossil fuel's implicit subsidies, guaranteed RES purchase price or any other targeted financial supports and finally RES targets, may set the scene for a considerable share of RES in the primary energy basket of Iran in the future.